World Energy to 2050

[Wilco Vercoelen]

Here is a nice article in two parts with graphs on Energy from the past, present and future. It looks like a pretty extensive study.

Part one: http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP2/WEAP2.html
Part two: http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP2/Energy_GDP_2050.html

Written by Paul Chefurka

One of the things that I noticed in the graph with oil production is the period around 1975 which was the oil crisis of 1973. If you put this in perspective to the sharp decline of oil production after 2010, you start to worry....
Oil price Nov 2006 $60 a barrel, Nov. 2007 $96 a barrel.
Better start saving for a hybrid......

[Rob Beckers]

Interesting reading! Thanks Wilco!
Who is the author? The name doesn't ring any bells.

It's a pretty dire picture. Predicted oil production in 2050 only 18% of today's production. Renewables growing but not picking up the slack. 2050 total energy production only a bit over half of today's.

His economic outlook is even darker, with today's industrial giants being relegated to the second tier, and most of the developing world no better off than it is today. Closer to home, Canada is shown to slip significantly in per capital GDP. I'm not sure I agree with his analysis. It denies human ingenuity when dealing with a crisis. We will have solutions in 2050 that we have not yet thought of today IMO. I agree with the author that a shake-up with some rough times is ahead.

While I don't deny that the price of oil is trending in only one direction (up), its current price should be viewed in relation to the (about) 30% devaluation of the US dollar over the past few years.

If only my chrystal ball was working a bit better...

-RoB-